Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend and step off before it is discredited.
How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula: Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability.
“Market timing is the art of making investment decisions using indicators and strategies to observe and determine the direction of prices. Many believe that market timing involves predicting the future, when in reality, the goal of market timing is to participate in periods of price strength and avoid periods of price weakness.?
http://smartstops.wordpress.com/2010/07/02/in-defense-of-market-timing-a-study-that-will-shock-you/
“It is the exit and not the entry that determines the outcome
of an investment.”
http://smartstops.wordpress.com/2010/07/02/in-defense-of-market-timing-a-study-that-will-shock-you/